Lynn 2015 Condo Market Review: a remarkable recovery

This Lynn 2015 Condo Market review chronicles the remarkable recovery in the market from the depths of 2009.

Sales
Sales were in the low 100s before exploding in the 2003-2006 years. The collapse was even more dramatic, as sales fell from 399 in 2005 to just 99 in 2008. Since then, sales have been more stable, although the second half of 2015 saw a sharp increase.

Source: MLS, Oliver Reports

Source: MLS, Oliver Reports

Distressed Sales
Not only did the total number of sales plummet, but distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales – were almost half the total in the 2010-2012 period. Put another way, there were just 57 and 59 non-distressed sales in 2011 and 2012. In the last two years, distressed sales have fallen sharply to a much more modest share of the total.

Source: MLS, Oliver Reports

Source: MLS, Oliver Reports

Median Price
The first half of 2009 saw the bottom of the market, with the median price down 48% from the peak, and the year overall seeing a 39% decline. The market was remarkable stable in the 2010-2014 period as the distressed sales worked their way through the market, but 2015 saw a sharp jump, taking the median price back to within 10% of the peak.

Source: MLS, Oliver Reports

Source: MLS, Oliver Reports

Source: MLS, Oliver Reports


ASR*

One way I measure prices is by the ratio (ASR) of Assessed Value (AV) to Sales Price (SP). The ASR is the AV divided by the SP: if the SP is rising (prices going up), the ASR will fall.

Note that the ASR for Lynn Condos has fallen sharply since 2012. In 2015 the median condo selling price was 26% (100/89.5 – 1) above its Assessed Value.

Source: MLS, Oliver Reports

Source: MLS, Oliver Reports

*Properties selling above their AV will have an ASR below 100%. What this means is that in a period of rising prices the ASR is likely to be falling.  So what we, as homeowners, want is an ASR below 100% and falling.

Remember that AVs are a lagging indicator: the tax bills for FY2016 are based on actual sales in 2014. Thus the 2015 sales data, reported in this review, will be the basis for FY2017 assessments.

Summary
Lynn, the largest city in Essex County, “is an urban manufacturing and commercial center, densely populated and culturally diverse.” Lynn suffered more than any other town on the North Shore during the Great Recession, so it is heartening to see the strong recovery taking place in the real estate market.
The announcement that GE is relocating its corporate HQ to Boston is a reminder that GE built the first jet engine in Lynn, while as this post Lynn, Lynn, city of……. revitalization records there are plans for Lynn’s development.
All in all, the outlook is for continued improvement in the housing market in Lynn.

If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com.

Read Which broker should I choose to sell my home?

Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated

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