Magnificent Marblehead Harbor View: OPEN HOUSE TODAY
The next phase of your exceptional life starts right here. For those who appreciate refined elegance, this 5 bedroom, 3.5 bathroom Marblehead home reflects the grace and grandeur of a bygone era.
You have to experience this timeless home in person. There is an Open House TODAY 11:30-1:00 or you can arrange a private tour by contacting Dick McKinley on 617.763.0415 or dick.mckinley@sothebysrealty.com.
Click 76 Bubier Road to go to the website, 3D for a 3D tour inside the house and Marblehead Reporter review for the Reporter article about the property.
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Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Open Houses Sunday November 10
Here are today’s Open Houses:
Click on these links for details:
Marblehead Open Houses
Swampscott Open Houses
Salem Open Houses
Beverly Open Houses
Lynn Open Houses
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
$20,000 reduction on Lynn Condo: Open House Today
$20,000 price reduction! OPEN HOUSE TODAY 12:00-1:30 at 50 S Common Street #507 or contact Cynda Rohmer on 781.696.3646 or Cynda.Rohmer@SothebysRealty.com for a private showing.
Come and see this top floor 2 bedroom, 2 full bath condo located in well maintained brick building with stackable washer dryer hook up in unit. Large spacious vaulted ceiling living room features a private balcony with ocean view that can also be accessed from large master with walk in closet and master bath.
Air conditioning was replaced in 2016. The building has a Community room and additional storage. Close to shopping, bank, City Hall, Square and Bus Lines. 10 min walk to MBTA central Square, commuter rail and North shore Community College. Enclosed parking garage space
Click Lynn Condo for more details and photos.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Open Houses weekend November 9/10
A chilly start to the day but it will warm up in time for these Open Houses. Remember to check back tomorrow at 8 a.m. for an updated list for Sunday.
Marblehead Open Houses
Swampscott Open Houses
Salem Open Houses
Beverly Open Houses
Lynn Open Houses
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Forget the Price of the Home. The Cost is What Matters.
The article points out the impact on affordability of, amongst other things, this year’s drop in mortgage rates from 4.5% to around 3.7% currently. In the same period last year, of course, mortgage rates went up by almost 1%.
Comments about “affordability” – like those experts who say that 82% of the cost of such and such a renovation will be reclaimed on sale – are fine in theory and may, like all statistics, be accurate over very large numbers.
But most people are buying just one house at the time that is appropriate for them, based upon what they can afford at the time – and what is available.
Puzzled by why mortgage rates have been so volatile over the last couple of years? Read
https://oliverreports.com/mortgag…/mortgage-rates-forecasts/ for informed commentary about North Shore real estate markets, mortgage rates, property taxes and anything else that influences real estate markets.
Forget the Price of the Home. The Cost is What Matters.
Home buying activity (demand) is up, and the number of available listings (supply) is down. When demand outpaces supply, prices appreciate. That’s why firms are beginning to increase their projections for home price appreciation going forward. As an example, CoreLogic increased their 12-month projection for home values from 4.5% to 5.6% over the last few months.
The reacceleration of home values will cause some to again voice concerns about affordability. Just last week, however, First American came out with a data analysis that explains how price is not the only market factor that impacts affordability. They studied prices, mortgage rates, and wages from January through August of this year. Here are their findings:
Home Prices
“In January 2019, a family with the median household income in the U.S. could afford to buy a $373,900 house. By August, that home had appreciated to $395,000, an increase of $21,100.”
Mortgage Interest Rates
“The 0.85 percentage point drop in mortgage rates from January 2019 through August 2019 increased affordability by 9.7%. That translates to a $40,200 improvement in house-buying power in just eight months.”
Wage Growth
“As rates have fallen in 2019, the economy has continued to perform well also, resulting in a tight labor market and wage growth. Wage growth pushes household incomes upward, which were 1.5% higher in August compared with January. The growth in household income increased consumer house-buying power by 1.5%, pushing house-buying power up an additional $5,600.”
When all three market factors are combined, purchasing power increased by $24,500, thus making home buying more affordable, not less affordable. Here is a table that simply shows the data:
Bottom Line
In the article, Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, explained it best:
“Focusing on nominal house price changes alone as an indication of changing affordability, or even the relationship between nominal house price growth and income growth, overlooks what matters more to potential buyers – surging house-buying power driven by the dynamic duo of mortgage rates and income growth. And, we all know from experience, you buy what you can afford to pay per month.”
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
The Money Pit – the sequel
Remember “The Money Pit”? You know, the 1986 movie with Tom Hanks and Shelley Long, who purchase a supposed bargain of a mansion, which proceeds to collapse under their feet? Well, it turns out that the real-life house from the film has officially lived up to its reputation, selling for a huge loss, according to this Realtor.com article:The Money Pit
The house was purchased by a couple in 2002 for $2.15 million, but they were in for a surprise. “We didn’t realize how bad it was. The house was falling apart when you went from room to room. We definitely could have done the sequel.”
Undismayed, the new owners set out on an expensive renovation – $5.9 million, taking their total investment to $8 million, before listing the house in 2014 for $12.5 million.
That would have been a reasonable return on the $8 million investment – had it sold. But it didn’t. Until recently. For $3.5 million, or a $4.5 million loss. Ouch.OUCH!
According to a local broker: “’The Money Pit’ house selling at a loss has to do with both the size and styling of the house. Buyers are looking for more casual homes and aren’t as interested in large, formal properties. While the house is certainly beautiful, it’s just not the look that many buyers are shopping for.”
And that story has been repeated elsewhere.
“What a beautiful, old-style property,”commented one buyer recently about a 19th Century house. Before going on to buy a modern property; modern both in terms of design – more open concept, fewer formal rooms – and amenities – a smart home, sleek and shiny.
Perhaps the lesson from the Money Pit sequel is that just because you fall in love with an old house and are happy to invest millions in it does not mean that others will share your taste. Or if they do, most likely they are of an age where they are sellers, not buyers of such properties.
Caveat emptor applies to old properties.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Housing Supply By Town By Price
I have written before about the difference in supply at different price points. This article examines the supply of Single Family Homes (SFH) by price as at November 1 for Marblehead, Swampscott, Beverly, Sale, Lynn, and for Essex County overall.
A market is generally considered to be in equilibrium between buyers and sellers when the number of properties for sale – the supply – is equivalent to 6 months of sales. When supply is under 6 months it is considered to be a sellers’ market; more than 6 months and it is a buyers’ market.
But the overall figure for a market can disguise a wide range between properties at different price points – as the following tables demonstrate.
Marblehead
The pattern is shown here, as the supply increases – dramatically – as prices rise.
Swampscott
The same story.
Beverly
And again.
Salem
Salem doesn’t really have a top end to the same extent as the other towns so this is effectively a strong sellers’ market at all price points.
Lynn
A very tight market.
Essex County
A simple rule of statistics is the bigger the number the more reliable the statistic. Thus, the numbers for Essex County as a whole are the most significant, and clearly underline the story from individual towns.
Comment
While there is truth in the cliche that “all real estate is local”, it is also true that broader trends, not just in terms just of home sales, but also of consumer confidence,economic outlook and mortgage rates, can give insight into where local markets are heading.
With the economy continuing to show steady growth, mortgage rates close to historic lows, and low inventories, the outlook for the North Shore market continues to be for steady, not spectacular, growth as we head into the election year, particularly if consumer confidence remains strong.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
New Listings mid-week November 6
A small number of new listings this week:
Marblehead New Listings
Swampscott New Listing
Salem New Listings
Beverly New Listings
Lynn New Listings
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Housing Inventory declines yet again
Single Family Homes (SFH)
After years of decline, the number of Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale in Essex County on the first of the month compared with a year earlier (YOY) increased from August 2018 until June 2019. Since then the decline has resumed and, in fact, accelerated, as this table shows:
The next two charts (the first for January to June; the second July to December) show the number of SFHs for sale on the first of the month since 2016. The far right line in each column, representing 2019, shows the increase in the first half of the year followed by the resumption of the decline.
Condos
The number of condos for sale increased YOY from June 2018 until August 2019, but since then there has been a decline, which has also accelerated.
These two charts show numbers since 2016 for January to June, and July to December:
Comment
While the overall supply of SFHs in Essex County remains very low at just 2 months ( a market is considered to be in equilibrium between buyers and sellers when there is 6 months of supply) the position varies greatly by price, as shown in this table:
Thus, the conclusion is that the market remains in favour of sellers right up to $1.5 million, but above that dramaticallys swings in favour of buyers.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
Open Houses Sunday November 3
It should warm up nicely in time for today’s Open Houses: (more…)
Open Houses November 2/3
Here are the weekend’s Open Houses. An updated list for Sunday will be published at 8:00 tomorrow. (more…)
New Listings week ending November 1
Here are the New Listings over the last seven days:
Click on these links for details:
Marblehead New Listings
Swampscott New Listings
Salem New Listings
Beverly New Listings
Lynn New Listings
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
New Listings before Halloween
These are the latest New Listings before Halloween:
Marblehead New Listings
Swampscott New Listings
Salem New Listings
Beverly New Listings
Lynn New Listings
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Open Houses Sunday October 27
Wet and windy this afternoon so be prepared as you set out for these Open Houses:
Click on these links for details:
Marblehead Open Houses
Swampscott Open Houses
Salem Open Houses
Beverly Open Houses
Lynn Open Houses
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Open Houses weekend October 26/27
Sunny today, wet tomorrow. Check back at 8 am tomorrow for an updated list of Sunday’s Open Houses.
Click on these links for details (Saturday’s first then Sunday’s):
Marblehead Open Houses
Swampscott Open Houses
Salem Open Houses
Beverly Open Houses
Lynn Open Houses
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
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