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New Listings before Halloween

October 30, 2019 · by Andrew Oliver · in Latest News

These are the latest New Listings before Halloween:
New Listings
Marblehead New Listings
Swampscott New Listings
Salem New Listings
Beverly New Listings
Lynn New Listings

Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®

Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com

Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated

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Open Houses Sunday October 27

October 27, 2019 · by Andrew Oliver · in Latest News

Wet and windy this afternoon so be prepared as you set out for these Open Houses:
Open Houses
Click on these links for details:
Marblehead Open Houses
Swampscott Open Houses
Salem Open Houses
Beverly Open Houses
Lynn Open Houses

Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®

Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com

Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated

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Open Houses weekend October 26/27

October 26, 2019 · by Andrew Oliver · in Latest News

Sunny today, wet tomorrow. Check back at 8 am tomorrow for an updated list of Sunday’s Open Houses.
Open Houses
Click on these links for details (Saturday’s first then Sunday’s):
Marblehead Open Houses
Swampscott Open Houses
Salem Open Houses
Beverly Open Houses
Lynn Open Houses

Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®

Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com

Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated

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New Listings week ending October 25

October 26, 2019 · by Andrew Oliver · in Latest News

A light week for New Listings before Halloween:
New Listings
Marblehead New Listings
Swampscott New Listings
Salem New Listings
Beverly New Listings
Lynn New Listings

Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®

Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com

Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated

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Is the seller’s market coming to an end?

October 26, 2019 · by Andrew Oliver · in Essex County Housing News, Latest News, Market Reports, Massachusetts Housing News

A really interesting article from boston.com asks the question we’d all like to know the answer to: Is the sellers’ market coming to an end?

Witness for the prosecution
According to the President of the Greater Boston Association of Realtors, reporting that the median Single Family Home (SFH) price in Greater Boston had increased just 1.7% to $605,000 over the last 12 months, while the median condo price had slipped 4.1% to $549,000: “The seller’s market is likely over, or at least the balance has shifted. With sale prices having begun to stabilize, more homes and condos available for sale, and properties sitting on the market longer, home values have most likely peaked in many areas.”

Witness for the defence
According to a report from The Warren Group, in Massachusetts as a whole in September, the median SFH price rose 5 percent on a year-over-year basis to $399,000, but the real action was in the condo market, where the median price jumped 14.3% to $375,000.

Comment
Lies, damned lies and statistics was the first article I wrote for the Marblehead Reporter in 2008.The point I made then, and have repeated many times since, is that statistics can be distorted to suit the argument one is trying to make – rather like the way Opinion Polls slant questions to get the answer the sponsor wants.

In real estate I don’t believe there is an intent to mislead; I think it is often a writer quoting statistics without explaining them.

Having said that, the number one reason that I NEVER quote monthly statistics is that they can vary greatly and IMO are pretty meaningless.

Let’s look at Massachusetts sales to see if I can make my reason clear.

Our starting point is the comment that the median price in September (one month) increased 5% Year over Year (YOY) for SFHs and 14.3% for condos. We are using different sources for numbers (mine from MLS, Warren from public records, thereby including more sales) but the numbers for the month of September are quite similar. But look below at the monthly figures for July, August and September, followed by those for the entire quarter – Q3.

Massachusetts housing market

For SFHs the monthly increases are quite consistent.

But now look at condos. Note that I have high-lighted September 2018 when the median price was out of whack at just $340,085. The September 2019 median price was down from July and August but up sharply compared with September 2018 – which was an outlier.

So we look at the quarter – Q3 – and see that the median prices was up 3.2%, similar to the 2.8% for SFHs.

Confession time. I have statistics going back to 2000 for all 34 cities and towns in Essex County plus Essex and Middlesex Counties and Massachusetts. In all the years of keeping records the only time I have calculated a monthly statistic was – for this article.

Especially in New England, there is too much fluctuation even from quarter to quarter, in large part because of seasonality caused by….weather. To give another example, I worked with a seller in Watertown and he had a report from another Realtor showing that the median price had dropped  by a large amount – something like 20% – for ONE MONTH and suggesting that prices would show a decline in coming months. By showing longer-term data I was able to persuade the seller that the one month figure was meaningless – and in fact the median price increased by double digits in the second half of the year.

So how is the market?
What was long ago called the $64,000 question, when $64,000 still bought something of value.

By now you will understand that I like to use quarterly data and – better yet – Year to Date as we get to 6 and 9 months.

Here’s another table:
Massachusetts Housing Market

For both SFHs and Condos the YTD increase is =/- 2.5% – and in each case Q3 was a little higher than that figure, not suggesting a slowing of the rate of price increases.

But…..MA is a very big place! And numbers for condo median prices are distorted because Massachusetts includes….Boston. In fact, the median price of condos in Boston has dropped 3.1% YTD meaning that excluding Boston the median price has actually increased by 4.6%.

Yes, I know, your head is spinning with all these numbers. And I will add one more. Note that the median prices quoted at the beginning for Greater Boston were $605,000 for SFHs and $549,000 for condos. Compare that with $399,000 for SFHs and $375,000 for Condos in the Warren Group report. In both cases the Greater Boston numbers are about 50% higher than for the State as a whole. The Boston and surrounding towns effect.

Conclusion
As I said nobody is trying to mislead the consumer (or home buyer or seller), but I repeat what I often say to people when they are shown a statistic:”tell me what that means”.
Even if numbers confuse you (and as a numbers wonk that is hard for me to believe….) there is no reason not to ask for an explanation, as they say in prospectuses nowadays, “in plain English.”

For detailed Q3 reports on Marblehead, Swampscott, Salem and Beverly, as well as a town-by-town summary for the 34 cities and towns of Essex County, click
Team Harborside Market Reports.

Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®

Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com

Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated

 

 

 

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Roof shingles: cover or strip?

October 26, 2019 · by Andrew Oliver · in Home maintenenance

Yes one of the great existential questions of life.
Covering old shingles may be cheaper but roofing experts, quoted in boston.com’s Roof shingles pros and cons say “It is never advisable to shingle over existing shingles.”

Roof shingles

Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®

Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com

Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
 

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New Listings mid-week October 23

October 23, 2019 · by Andrew Oliver · in Latest News

Here are the latest new listings:
New ListingsClick on these links for details:
Marblehead New Listings
Swampscott New Listings
Salem New Listings
Beverly New Listings
Lynn New Listings

Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®

Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com

Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated

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Essex County Q3 2019 Market Summary

October 23, 2019 · by Andrew Oliver · in Essex County Housing News, Latest News
[Click Q3 2019 Essex County Market Summary to download a copy of this report.]

Single Family Homes (SFH)
The median price of the SFHs sold in the 34 cities and towns of Essex County in the first 9 months of 2019 (YTD Q3 2019) increased 3.7% to $477,000, with the rate of gain increasing in Q3. Sales YTD increased 3.2%.
Essex County Housing Market

Condos
The median price of Condos/Townhomes sold YTD Q3 2019 increased 5.4%, to $315,000. Sales were essentially flat.
Essex County Housing MarketComment
While the overall inventory at October 1 represented just 2.1 months of supply ( a market is considered to be in equilibrium between buyers and sellers when there is 6 months of supply) the number varies widely by price:  from just 1 month for SFHs under $750,000, 3 months from $750,000 to $1.5 million; and nearly 14 months at prices over $1.5 million.

Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®

Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com

Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
 

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Open Houses Sunday October 20

October 20, 2019 · by Andrew Oliver · in Latest News

Here is the updated list of today’s Open Houses:
Open Houses
Click on these links for details:
Marblehead Open Houses
Swampscott Open Houses
Salem Open Houses
Beverly Open Houses
Lynn Open Houses

Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®

Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com

Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated

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Beverly Q3 2019 Housing Market Summary

October 20, 2019 · by Andrew Oliver · in Beverly Housing Market, Latest News, Market Reports
[Click Beverly Q3 2019 Housing Market Summary to download a copy of this report.

Single Family Homes (SFH)
After 8 consecutive quarters in 2017-18 in the $450,000-$475,000 range, the median price of Single Family Homes (SFH) sold in the first 9 months of 2019 (YTD Q3) jumped 10.3% to $520,000. Sales, however, were the lowest since 2012.

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Condos
The median condo price YTD jumped 18.1% to $339,000, but was similar to the 2017 level of $340,000. While the drop in 2017 was caused by the end of sales at Elliott Landing, the increase in 2019 in both median price and sales seems to be more a reflection of strong buying interest in Beverly generally rather than any one new development.
blank

NB Numbers in bold represent record levels. Sources: MLSPIN, OliverReports.com

Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®

Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com

Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated

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Lynn Q3 2019 Housing Market Summary

October 20, 2019 · by Andrew Oliver · in Latest News, Lynn Housing Market
[Click Lynn Q3 2019 Housing Market Summary to download a copy of this report.]

Single Family Homes (SFH)
The median price of the SFHs sold in Lynn in the first 9 months of 2019 (YTD Q3) Q1 2019 increased nearly 8% from YTD 2018. Sales dropped slightly from last year’s record level but were in line with the 5-year average.
Lynn Housing Market

Condos
The median price of the condos sold YTD Q3 jumped 11.1% from a year ago, taking the increase to almost 50% over the last 4 years. Sales were steady with recent years.
blank

Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®

Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com

Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated

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Salem Q3 2019 Housing Market Summary

October 20, 2019 · by Andrew Oliver · in Latest News, Salem housing market
[Click Salem Q3 2019 Housing Market Summary to download a copy of this report.]

Single Family Homes (SFH)
The median price of Single Family Homes (SFH) sold in the first 9 months of 2019 (YTD Q3) increased 1.6% to $432,5000. Sales reached a new peak – just.
Salem Housing Market

Condos
The median price of the condos sold YTD increased 3% to $345,000. Sales were very similar to recent years except for 2016
Salem Housing Market

NB Numbers in bold represent record levels. Sources: MLSPIN, OliverReports.com

Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com

Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated

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Marblehead Q3 Housing Market Summary

October 19, 2019 · by Andrew Oliver · in Market Reports
[Click Marblehead Q3 Housing Market Summary to download a pdf of this report}

Single Family Homes (SFH)
The median price of SFHs sold in Marblehead in the first 9 months of 2019 increased 1.8% to a new record of $712,500. Sales recovered from the 2018 drop and were in line with the 5-year average. The median Days to Offer (DTO) was steady at 13.
Marblehead Housing Market

Condos
Because it is such a small market, the median condo price can fluctuate from quarter to quarter. More significantly, the YTD median price is almost exactly the same as in the second half of 2018. Median DTO was 15 against 14 in 2018.
Marblehead Housing Market
NB Numbers in bold represent record levels. Sources: MLSPIN, OliverReports.com

Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®

Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com

Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated

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Open Houses weekend October 19/20

October 19, 2019 · by Andrew Oliver · in Latest News

A fine weekend is in store after the “bomb cyclone.” Here are the Open Houses – as usual an updated list will be posted at 8 a.m. on Sunday.

Open Houses

Click on these links for details:
Marblehead Open Houses
Swampscott Open Houses
Salem Open Houses
Beverly Open Houses
Lynn Open Houses

Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®

Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com

Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated

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Swampscott Q3 Housing Market Summary

October 19, 2019 · by Andrew Oliver · in Market Reports, Swampscott Housing Market
[Click Swampscott Q3 Housing Market Summary to download a PDF of this report.]

Single Family Homes (SFH)
The median price of the SFHs sold in the first 9 months of 2019 edged higher, while sales dropped to the lowest figure since 2012. The median Days to Offer (DTO) declined from 12 to 10.5
Swampscott Housing Market

Condos
Sales dropped sharply from last year’s number but were close to the 5-year average. The decline in the median price was accounted for by the smaller number of sales at Avery. DTO increased sharply from 8 to 20.

Swampscott Housing Market

NB Numbers in bold represent record levels. Sources: MLSPIN, OliverReports.com

Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com

Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated

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