Lynn Mid-Year 2015 Housing Market Review
The first half of the year in Lynn saw a 6% increase in the median price of a Single Family Home (SFH), steady sales and a shortage of inventory.
The median price for the first half of 2015 was $269,000, up 6% from $249,900 in 2014, but still 10% below the 2005 peak of $293,000:
In Essex County overall, the median SFH price in the first half of 2015 was $385,000, less than 2% below the 2005 peak of $390,000.
In New England, the weather causes significant fluctuations in the number of sales each quarter, and this often leads to wide fluctuations in the quarterly median price. The table below shows quarterly median prices for SFHs since 2000 and helps to explain why I put most faith in semi-annual or annual, rather than quarterly, price information.
Note that in the 15 years 2000-2014, the highest quarterly price for the year was recorded just once in Q1 and twice in Q4, but 5 times in Q2 and 7 times in Q3.
Outlook for Q3
There are currently 181 SFHs that have either closed in Q3 or are pending and the median list price is $270,000. Recently sales have taken place at 99% of list so it look as though the Q3 median price may be in the region of $265 – 267,500.
Sales in the first half were steady with the 2014 level and were the highest since 2005 .
Distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales – were about one-third of total sales in the 2010-2012 period, but have dropped sharply in the last couple of years:
What this means is that non-distressed, or normal, sales increased dramatically from 275 in 2012 to 428 in 2014:
Higher priced sales location
Like many cities and towns Lynn has a variety of differing neighborhoods. The map below shows the location of sales above $350,000 so far in 2015.
The next two tables show the month by month inventory compared with 2014 and the breakdown of current inventory by price. Note that supply has scarcely increased with the spring and summer selling season. Based on the first half sales of 215, current inventory represents only 2.6 months of supply, sharply below the 6 months that is regarded as representing a market in equilibrium.
The median price of a SFH in Lynn has recovered strongly in the last two years, coinciding with the sharp reduction in the number of distressed sales. Note that as distressed sales frequently sell at a significant discount to the normal market, I exclude distressed sales from my median price calculations. Thus the reduction in distressed sales has no direct impact on the median price, but it may have an indirect effect as buyers who might have considered a distressed sale are forced into the non-distressed market.
With current inventory representing under 3 months of supply, the outlook is for a continued recovery in Lynn’s SFH market.